Takeaway #1
North Korea appears to be preparing to test-launch its longest-range ballistic missile.Takeaway #2
The probability of all-out war with the South is low due to an underfunded military that could not compete with US-backed South Korea.Takeaway #3
A naval skirmish could be one scenario, though the North's navy has become more obsolete while the South's has increased its firepower and technology.
Takeaway #4
Another scenario is a shootout along the Demilitarized Zone, but it is unlikely because it could trigger a bigger conflict.Takeaway #5
North Korea could launch its long-range Taepodong-2 missile to demonstrate its capability to strike Japan and the US.Takeaway #6
Previous nuclear tests were considered only partially successful, so North Korea could conduct a second test, though it would strain international relations.
Takeaway #7
North Korea could restore operation sto its Yongbyon nuclear plant.Takeaway #8
They could also launch all-out war, though US military commanders in South Korea have said they would be able to quickly defeat the North.





